HOW WILL BREXIT AFFECT EUROPEAN UNION AND THE WHOLE WORLD?

Article Submission :

Author: Vidya Bharath Puthran

Co- Author : Jeevan Lancy Pereira

Institution: Vaikunta Baliga College of Law, Udupi, Karnataka.

AN EXIT :

‘Brexit’ means Britain’s exit, the Great Britain leaving European Union. The movement of Brexit is not very recent, soon after UK joined EU (1973), first referendum was put forth in the year 1975. But, only after 2016, the voice for Brexit firmly raised in United Kingdom. Initially by public poll, the people voted over 51.9% in favor of Brexit and 48.1% against it. At this point, the political support for Brexit grew faster and finally ‘The European Union withdrawal Agreement Bill’, in other words ‘The Brexit Bill', was passed in the House of Commons. It was then confirmed that, United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. On January 31st 2020 the United Kingdom left the European Union. History, marking a milestone called it ‘exit day'. The affects of Brexit to the European Union depends on the negotiations that are taking place between them. As far as the whole world is concerned, Brexit did leave a door wide open for the world to reconcile it’s trade deals with both EU and UK. This Exit might as well be an Entry to the historical new beginning.

BREAK IT OR MAKE IT ?

The interdependent world economy posts it’s vague idea as to how to cope with Brexit. It's presentiment towards post-Brexit negotiations are three folded, viz., Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit and Chequers Brexit. But the post-Brexit negotiations are not Black and White. There are Grey areas where, both UK and EU has leverage on each other. The whole world’s focus was on the Brexit negotiations, until the covid-19 pandemic hit us. The pandemic crisis though procrastinated the negotiations, but it couldn’t stop the following affects on the EU and the whole world.

CHANCINESS :

When the heavy chunk of GDP of EU was contributed by the UK, the economy is likely to face some excruciating new numbers. It’s not only the economy the EU and rest of the world should be worried about, the room for change of laws, shifts in priorities and fluctuating mindset of the people is likely to put us all together in a state of chaos.

DESTRUCTIVE MUCH?

The Brexit might be self destruction because, defensive measures in borders for stopping unauthorized entry would lead to a conflict relating to use of economical benefit from sea. UK though seem as one, history is the proof of conflicts among themselves. Moreover, the Scotland, who didn’t support Brexit strongly, would disagree with post-Brexit arrangements. Will it thrive to be an independent Nation again? or will it join EU leaving UK? Only time will answer these questions. The impact of UK's self destruction not only affects EU, also the countries who invested in UK.

EUROPEAN UNION :

The post-Brexit period though seems uncertain and scary but, there is scope to make EU stronger. The UK being the first to leave the Union, EU have to set principles. Various campaigns over EU countries provided the clear view of the EU nationals and it seems to make them more united. The agenda behind striking hard Brexit negotiations is to set up precedents. And as it seems it was quite successful in promising stability and security for its member nations to stand United as the European Union.

FLOW :

Post- Brexit, UK won’t be a suitable option for migrants. The EU has liberal laws and perks like free movement, and free trade. But this could scare EU member nations, which would further push limits of EU border nations, leading to mismanagement, possible terrorism, and conflicts between EU and members.

GET CONTROL:

After Brexit is complete, UK will concentrate on its borders. The UK is mostly covered by sea, but if we look closer, Northern Ireland and Ireland share land border. Taking control of it’s only land border as well as it’s territorial sea waters, where 12 nautical mile will be the territorial jurisdiction for a state under the UN convention of law of the sea and relating to economical use, the same law of the sea will permit 200 nautical miles, this may expose EU and rest of the world to a new dimension of unfamiliar territorial laws.

HITCH :

Be it in the trade, work or care sector, when UK tries to prove its independency at any cost, the direct affect will be on the innumerable souls who depend on UK. Whether EU national or not, the free benefits which were enjoyed before will be a luxury to reach. Losing jobs is the main scare for EU nationals who work in UK. The Brexit is likely to make UK, prioritize it’s citizen over EU nationals. Though the negotiations aren’t complete, the pandemic crisis is already making UK re-think on its dependency specially in health care sector. But the set back had began the day after Brexit, when value of Sterling Pounds dropped to Dollars.

INVESTOR'S DILEMMA:

When UK was part of EU, London was the economic hub in Europe. After Brexit, the investors and traders who considered the UK as gateway to large EU market, will be forced to hold back till UK makes its new policies. This would either bring investors directly to EU, making EU even stronger or, this would force the investors to look for less complicated large markets, for e.g., Asia. This would be a huge loss to the EU and also to the investors who have to start from scratch at new Market.

JURISDICTION:

UK's constant feel of being controlled by the EU has ended. The freed British Law makers are definitely going to make a statement by doing drastic changes in and around Laws which is contrary to the EU regulations. This not only affects EU, but also leaves the world at a constant scare of UK's unexpected moves. This makes the whole world vulnerable to the possibility of unwelcoming laws and closing the pathway to Europe.

KNOWN COMPETITOR:

The UK had to follow EU regulations as to competition in trade in the Pre-Brexit period. But now UK is a strong competitor to EU. UK could join Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in direct single market access which would be enacted per the existing agreement on the European Economic Area. Many trade regulations would remain the same without imposing the same export and import tariffs as non-EU countries. But, EU would lose some of its clout as one of its largest economy and political heavyweight goes off on its own.

LURKING CONCLUSION:

The questions hanging over non-EU counties are, will they have to choose between UK and EU when comes to trade ? And won’t it defeat the whole idea behind the EU's existence? When it stands for peace, would it be a reason for chaos ? Or will it let UK fit in with its new status and support it ? The Brexit make the UK more flexible than ever, leaving the whole world to wonder what will be the result. As much as we like to predict the future, we cannot underestimate the power of time, how it change and changes everything with it.